云南地区综合地震前兆信息量及其短期映震能力分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张立  平建军  苏有锦 《地震研究》2006,29(4):325-331

选取了云南地区34个台站的55项映震能力较好的形变、地磁和地下流体前兆观测资料，计算并提取了这些前兆资料的单项及综合地震前兆信息量，并对其采取一致性的异常判定标准，统计异常对云南地区M≥6．0地震的映震情况及预测效能，进而确定了云南地区M≥6．0地震的短期综合预报指标。  相似文献   

Seismic quantification of the explosions that destroyed the dome of Volcán de Colima, Mexico, in July–August 2003     

Vyacheslav M. Zobin  Carlos J. Navarro-Ochoa  Gabriel A. Reyes-Dávila 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2006,69(2):141-147

In July–August 2003, the andesitic lava dome at Volcán de Colima, México, was destroyed by a sequence of explosions that replaced the 2×10⁶ m³ dome with a crater 200 m across and 30 m deep. The two strongest explosions occurred on July 17 and August 28. The initial low-frequency impulses that they produced, which were recorded on broadband seismic records, allowed an estimation of the counter forces of the initiating process as being equal to 0.3×10¹¹ N and 1×10¹¹ N for the July and August events, respectively. The seismic characteristics follow the Nishimura-Hamaguchi scaling law for volcanic explosions, reflecting self-similarity in the processes initiating explosive events. The results also show that counter forces can discriminate between the sizes of explosive eruptions that are assigned the same magnitude by conventional methods of classification such as the Volcanic Explosivity Index. The increasing use of broadband seismometers may therefore provide the basis for using counter forces to determine the magnitude of explosive eruptions.  相似文献   

Seismic hazard of the Eastern Mediterranean     

Amr Z. Hamouda 《Acta Geophysica》2006,54(2):165-176

Earthquake hazard parameters such as maximum magnitude, annual mean seismic activity rate, and the Gutenberg-Richter parameter, have been evaluated for the Hellenic and Cyprean Arc regions of the Eastern Mediterranean. The applied maximum likelihood procedure permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The collected data from different sources cover earthquakes with magnitude ≥ 3.5 throughout the last two centuries. The historical part of the catalogue only contains the strongest events, whereas the complete part can be divided into several subcatalogues, each assumed complete above a specific threshold of magnitude. The hazard parameters assessment is performed for the two study regions. The Hellenic Arc region was found to be of higher seismicity level than the Cyprean Arc region. The number of annually expected earthquakes with magnitude ≥ 3.5 is much larger in the Hellenic Arc (56±2) than in the Cyprean Arc (35±2). The maximum magnitude calculated in the Hellenic Arc zone is 7.8±0.4 for the time period equal to the length of the catalogue, i.e., 210 years. For the Cyprean Arc zone, the maximum possible magnitude is 6.8±0.4 for the time span of 330 years.  相似文献   

M L Determination for Local and Regional Events Using a Sparse Network in Southwestern Germany     

Stefan Stange 《Journal of Seismology》2006,10(2):247-257

A method for the determination of consistent local magnitude M _L values (Richter scale, or M _WA) for earthquakes with epicentral distances ranging from 10 km through 1000 km is demonstrated. The raw data consists of nearly 1300 amplitude readings from a network of six digital seismographs in Baden–Württemberg (Southwestern Germany) during 26 months starting in 1995, later extended by another 1000 amplitude readings until 1999. Relying on most of the basics introduced by C.F. Richter a three-parameter attenuation curve (distance correction, magnitude-distance relation) for Baden–Württemberg and adjacent areas is presented. Station corrections are evaluated and the attenuation curve is calibrated with respect to other agencies for distances greater than 650 km. Reasonable parametrisations are discussed and meaningful error bars are attributed. Finally, a seventh station is incorporated by means of its station correction alone, without needing to update the attenuation curve.  相似文献   

Flood seasonality and generating conditions in the Tay catchment, Scotland from 1200 to present   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lindsey J McEwen 《Area》2006,38(1):47-64

The new maximum recorded river flows in Scotland since 1988 have triggered widespread interest in whether floods are becoming more frequent and in the conditions that generate floods of different magnitudes and frequencies. There are questions about the longer-term variability in flood-generating characteristics, and whether there are past analogues for present hydroclimatic variability. The present paper builds on previous work reconstructing a detailed historic flood chronology for the Tay, the largest catchment in Scotland, and its tributaries over the past 800 years, extending the gauged discharge record (1952 onwards). It categorizes flood-generating factors in the Tay catchment and analyses the hydro-meteorological conditions that have generated extreme and moderate floods over a historical period. This work is placed in a broader literature context of historical 'climaxes of storminess', periods of higher storm frequency, flood patterns observed in Scotland and Europe during the Little Ice Age and longer-term rainfall and temperature patterns. The paper concludes that the variability in flood-generating characteristics is highly dependent on the timescale of observation. Inevitably the relative dominance of winter and early spring flooding can vary from year to year and within specific time-periods, but so can the level of augmentation of the flood series with summer and autumn floods to produce notable 'flood years' and flood clusters. The Tay provides a good 'all-Scotland surrogate' for historical flood patterns, reflecting its gathering areas in eastern and western Scotland. The value of a historical approach to the assessment of flood seasonality and generating characteristics is clearly demonstrated.  相似文献   

GRACE和SLR观测的地球动力学扁率最大熵谱及小波相关分析          下载免费PDF全文

张子占  陆洋  许厚泽 《地球物理学报》2007,50(5):1383-1389

卫星重力测量技术的实现为测定地球动力学扁率提供了新的方式和途径，GRACE卫星是目前最新的重力测量卫星，据其恢复的低阶重力场较以往精度得到大大提高，然而其观测地球动力学扁率（二阶项）却与卫星激光测距（SLR）结果相差较大.本文采用最大熵谱和小波分析方法对GRACE和SLR观测的地球动力学扁率时间序列信号进行定量比较分析，结果表明：GRACE观测的地球动力学扁率年际周期变化振幅仅为SLR观测结果的25%，并且目前GRACE观测的地球动力学扁率数据中含有系统输入信息和相位差，但前者较后者包含有较强的短周期（2～6月）信息.造成这种差异的主要原因可能来自于GRACE与SLR全球观测数据时空分布不同.  相似文献   

A numerical study on 2-D compressive wave propagation in rock masses with a set of joints along the radial direction normal to the joints   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

W.D. Lei  A.M. Hefny  S. Yan  J. Teng 《Computers and Geotechnics》2007,34(6):508-523

An explosion in a borehole or an accidental explosion in a tunnel will generate a two-dimensional (2-D) compressive wave that travels through the surrounding rock mass. For the problem of 2-D compressive wave propagation in a rock mass with parallel joints in the radial direction normal to the joints, parametric studies on the transmission ratio and the maximum rebound ratio are performed in universal distinct element code. The variation of the transmission ratio with the ratio of joint spacing to wavelength is generalized into a characteristic curve, which can be used as a prediction model for estimating the transmission ratio. The relationship between the maximum rebound ratio and the influence factors is obtained in charts. The charts can be used as a prediction model for estimating the maximum rebound ratio. The proposed prediction models for estimating the transmission ratio and the maximum rebound ratio are applied to a field explosion test, Mandai test in Singapore. The minimum possible values of peak particle velocity (PPV) at the monitoring points are estimated by using the proposed prediction model for estimating the transmission ratio along the radial direction normal to the joints. On the other hand, the maximum possible values of PPV are estimated by using the proposed prediction model for estimating the maximum rebound ratio along the same radial direction. The comparison shows a good agreement between the field-recorded PPVs and the estimated range of PPVs given by the minimum possible PPVs and the maximum possible PPVs at the monitoring points in Mandai test. The good agreement between the estimated and field-recorded values validates the proposed prediction models for estimating peak particle velocity in a rock mass with a set of joints due to application of a compressive wave at the boundary of a tunnel or a borehole.  相似文献   

Non-classical types of loess     

M.H. Iriondo  D.M. Kröhling 《Sedimentary Geology》2007,202(3):352-368

The purpose of this contribution is to describe the sequence of physical and chemical processes resulting in the sediment-type named loess, a fine-grained sediment deposit of universal occurrence. Owing to historical causes, loess has been (and still is) implicitly linked to glacial/periglacial environments among most naturalists. However it is known today that most eolian dust is deflated from tropical deserts. Hence, that sequence of processes is more comprehensive than the former narrow cold scenario. Six examples of different “non-classical” cases (from South America and Europe) that fit well to the loess definition are developed: 1) volcanic loess in Ecuador: pyroclastic eruptions/valley wind/mountain praire/silica structuring; 2) tropical loess in northeastern Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay: deflation of river and fan splays/savanna/iron sesquioxide structuring; 3) gypsum loess in northern Spain: destruction of anhydrite/gypsiferous layers in a dry climate/valley wind/Saharian shrub peridesert/gypsum structuring; 4) trade-wind deposits in Venezuela and Brazil: deflation in tidal flats/trade wind into the continent/savanna/iron hydroxide structuring; 5) anticyclonic gray loess in Argentina: continental anticyclone on plains/anti-clockwise winds and whirls/steppe/carbonate structuring. All these non-classical types conform to the accepted loess definitions and they also share the most important field characteristics of loess such as grain size, friability, vertical or sub-vertical slopes in outcrops, subfusion and others. Other cases can probably be recognized when systematically scrutinized.  相似文献   

Maximum earthquake magnitudes in the Aegean area constrained by tectonic moment release rates   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

G. Ch. Koravos  I. G. Main  T. M. Tsapanos  R. M. W. Musson 《Geophysical Journal International》2003,152(1):94-112

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An Mw based earthquake Catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe using a hierarchy of magnitude conversions   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

G. Grünthal  R. Wahlström 《Journal of Seismology》2003,7(4):507-531

Data from 25 local catalogues and 30special studies of earthquakes in central,northern and northwestern Europe have beenincorporated into a Databank. The dataprocessing includes discriminating eventtypes, eliminating fake events and dupletsand converting different magnitudes andintensities to M_w if this is not givenby the original source. The magnitudeconversion is a key task of the study andimplies establishment of regressionequations where no local relations exist.The Catalogue contains tectonic events fromthe Databank within the area44°N–72°N,25°W–32°E and the time period1300–1993. The lower magnitude level forthe Catalogue entries is setat M_w == 3.50. The area covered by thedifferent catalogues are associated withpolygons. Within each polygon only datafrom one or a small number of the localcatalogues, supplemented by data fromspecial studies, enter the Catalogue. Ifthere are two or more such catalogues orstudies providing a solution for an event,a priority algorithm selects one entry forthe Catalogue. Then M_w is calculatedfrom one of the magnitude types, or frommacroseismic data, given by the selectedentry according to another priority scheme.The origin time, location, M_w magnitude and reference are specified for eachentry of the Catalogue. So is theepicentral intensity, I₀, if providedby the original source. Following thesecriteria, a total of about 5,000earthquakes constitute the Catalogue.Although originally derived for the purposeof seismic hazard calculation within GSHAP,the Catalogue provides a data base for manytypes of seismicity and seismic hazardstudies.  相似文献